ʻO ka Fermi Paradox ma hope o ka nalu o nā ʻike exoplanet

Ma ka galaxy RX J1131-1231, ua ʻike kahi hui o nā astrophysicists mai ke Kulanui o Oklahoma i ka hui mua i ʻike ʻia ma waho o ka Milky Way. ʻO nā mea "mālama ʻia" me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā ʻenehana microlensing gravitational he mau nui like ʻole, mai ka mahina a me Jupiter-like. ʻO kēia ʻike e hoʻolilo i ka Fermi Paradox i ʻoi aku ka paradoxical?

Aia ma kahi o ka helu like o nā hōkū ma kā mākou galaxy (100-400 billion), e pili ana i ka helu like o nā galaxies i ka Universe i ʻike ʻia - no laila, no kēlā me kēia hōkū i kā mākou Milky Way nui, aia kahi aniani holoʻokoʻa. Ma ka laulā, ua 10 makahiki²² i 10²⁴ hoku. ʻAʻohe manaʻo o ka poʻe ʻepekema e pili ana i ka nui o nā hōkū e like me ko mākou Lā (ʻo ia hoʻi ka nui, ka mahana, ka ʻōlinolino) - mai ka 5% a hiki i ka 20%. Lawe i ka waiwai mua a koho i ka helu liʻiliʻi loa o nā hōkū (10²²), loaʻa iā mākou he 500 trillion a i ʻole he piliona piliona hōkū e like me ka Lā.

Wahi a ka noiʻi a me nā manaʻo mai PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences), ma ka liʻiliʻi o 1% o nā hōkū i ke ao holoʻokoʻa i kahi honua hiki ke kākoʻo i ke ola - no laila ke kamaʻilio nei mākou e pili ana i 100 billion billion planeta me nā waiwai like me ka Honua. Inā manaʻo mākou ma hope o nā piliona makahiki o ke ola ʻana, ʻo 1% wale nō o ka honua honua e hoʻomohala i ke ola, a ʻo 1% o lākou e hoʻomohala i ke ola ma kahi ʻano naʻauao, ʻo ia ke ʻano he hoʻokahi honua bilyar me nā lāhui naʻauao ma ke ao ʻike ʻia.

Inā mākou e kamaʻilio e pili ana i kā mākou galaxy a hana hou i ka helu ʻana, me ka manaʻo ʻana i ka helu pololei o nā hōkū ma ka Milky Way (100 biliona), manaʻo mākou aia ma kahi o hoʻokahi piliona mau hōkū honua i loko o kā mākou galaxy. a me 100 XNUMX. nā lāhui akamai!

Manaʻo kekahi poʻe astrophysicists i ka hiki ʻana o ke kanaka ke lilo i ʻano ʻano ʻenehana mua loa he 1 i ka 10.²²ʻo ia hoʻi, he mea ʻole ia. Ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ua noho ka Universe ma kahi o 13,8 biliona makahiki. ʻOiai inā ʻaʻole i kū mai nā civilizations i nā makahiki mua o ka piliona, ua lōʻihi ka manawa ma mua o ka puka ʻana mai. Ma ke ala, inā ma hope o ka hoʻopau ʻia ʻana he "wale nō" hoʻokahi tausani civilizations i ka Milky Way a ua like lākou me ka lōʻihi o kā mākou (ma kahi o 10 mau makahiki), a laila ua nalowale lākou, e make ana. a i ʻole ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i nā poʻe ʻē aʻe i hiki ʻole ke loaʻa i kā mākou pae kiʻekiʻe, e pili ana ma hope iki.

E hoʻomaopopo he paʻakikī ke kamaʻilio ʻana i nā moʻomeheu "ma ka manawa like". Inā no ke kumu wale nō inā he 10 tausani makahiki māmā ka mamao, he 20 tausani makahiki māmā lākou e nīnau ai a pane mai. makahiki. Ke nānā nei i ka mōʻaukala o ka Honua, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale ʻia i loko o ia manawa e hiki ai ke kū aʻe ka civili mai ka ʻili a nalowale mai ka ʻili.

Hoʻohālikelike wale nō mai nā mea ʻike ʻole

Ke hoʻāʻo nei e loiloi inā paha e noho maoli ana kahi lāhui malihini, Frank Drake i nā makahiki 60, ua hoʻoholo ʻo ia i ka hoʻohālikelike kaulana - kahi ʻano hana nona ka hana "memanologically" e hoʻoholo i ke ola o nā lāhui naʻauao i kā mākou galaxy. Ma ʻaneʻi, hoʻohana mākou i kahi huaʻōlelo i haku ʻia i nā makahiki he nui aku nei e Jan Tadeusz Stanislawski, he mea hoʻohenehene a me ka mea kākau o ka lekiō a me ke kīwī "haʻi" ma ka "applied manology," no ka mea ua kūpono ka huaʻōlelo no kēia mau noʻonoʻo.

Wahi a ʻO ka hoʻohālikelike a Drake – N, ʻo ka heluna o nā lāhui ʻē aʻe e hiki ai i ke kanaka ke kamaʻilio, ʻo ia ka huahana o:

R_* - ka helu o ka hoʻokumu ʻana i nā hōkū ma kā mākou Galaxy;

f_p - pākēneka o nā hōkū me nā hōkū;

n_e – ka helu awelika o nā hōkūhele ma kahi noho o kahi hōkū, ʻo ia hoʻi nā mea e kū ai ke ola;

f_l - ka pākēneka o nā hōkūhele ma ka wahi noho kahi e kū ai ke ola;

f_i - ka pākēneka o nā hīnū noho ʻia kahi e hoʻomohala ai ke ola i ka naʻauao (ʻo ia hoʻi, hana i ka civilization);

f_c - ka pākēneka o nā lāhui e makemake e kamaʻilio me ke kanaka;

ʻO L ka awelika o ke ola o ia mau lāhui.

E like me kāu e ʻike ai, ʻaneʻane nā mea i ʻike ʻole ʻia ka hoohalike. Ma hope o nā mea a pau, ʻaʻole mākou ʻike i ka awelika o ka noho ʻana o kahi civilization a i ʻole ka pakeneka o ka poʻe makemake e hoʻopili iā mākou. Ke hoʻololi nei i kekahi mau hopena i ka hoʻohālikelike "ʻoi aʻe a liʻiliʻi paha", ua ʻike ʻia aia he mau haneli, a i ʻole mau tausani o ia ʻano civilizations i loko o kā mākou galaxy.

Drake equation a me kāna mea kākau

ʻO ka honua laʻa a me nā malihini ʻino

ʻOiai ke hoʻololi nei i nā waiwai conservative no nā ʻāpana o ka hoʻohālikelike Drake, loaʻa iā mākou he mau tausani o nā civili like me kā mākou a ʻoi aku ka naʻauao. Akā inā pēlā, no ke aha lākou e hoʻopili ʻole mai ai iā mākou? ʻO kēia ka mea i kapa ʻia Fermi paradox. He nui kāna mau "hoʻonā" a me nā wehewehe, akā hāʻawi ʻia i ke kūlana o kēia manawa o ka ʻenehana - a ʻoi aku hoʻi i ka hapalua o ke kenekulia i hala aku nei - he kuhi lākou āpau a pana makapō.

ʻO kēia paradox, no ka laʻana, wehewehe pinepine ʻia kuhiakau honua rarehe kū hoʻokahi ko kākou honua ma nā ʻano a pau. Ua koho ʻia ke kaomi, ka mahana, ka mamao mai ka Lā, ke axial tilt, a i ʻole ke kahua mākena pale radiation i hiki i ke ola ke ulu a ulu i ka lōʻihi o ka hiki.

ʻOiaʻiʻo, ke ʻike nei mākou i ka nui aʻe o nā exoplanets i ka ecosphere i hiki ke lilo i mau moho no nā hīnaʻi noho. ʻO ka mea hou loa, ua ʻike ʻia lākou ma kahi kokoke i kā mākou hōkū kokoke loa, ʻo Proxima Centauri. Malia naʻe, ʻoiai nā mea like, ʻaʻole "like like" ka "Pūpuni lua" i ʻike ʻia a puni nā lā malihini, a ʻo ia wale nō ka hoʻololi ʻana e hiki ai ke kū mai ka ʻenehana ʻenehana haʻaheo? Malia paha. Eia naʻe, ʻike mākou, ʻoiai ke nānā aku nei i ka Honua, e ola maikaʻi ana ke ola ma nā kūlana "kūpono ʻole".

ʻOiaʻiʻo, aia ka ʻokoʻa ma waena o ka holo ʻana a me ke kūkulu ʻana i ka Pūnaewele a me ka hoʻouna ʻana iā Tesla i Mars. Hiki ke hoʻoholo ʻia ka pilikia o ka ʻokoʻa inā hiki iā mākou ke loaʻa i kahi honua ma kahi ākea e like me ka Honua, akā me ka ʻole o ka ʻenehana ʻenehana.

I ka wehewehe ʻana i ka Fermi paradox, kamaʻilio lākou i kekahi manawa e pili ana i ka mea i kapa ʻia nā malihini ʻino. Hoʻomaopopo ʻia kēia ma nā ʻano like ʻole. No laila hiki ke "huhū" kēia mau malihini hypothetical i ka makemake o kekahi e hoʻopilikia iā lākou, e hoʻopilikia a hoʻopilikia iā lākou - no laila, hoʻokaʻawale lākou iā lākou iho, ʻaʻole pane i nā ʻōpala a ʻaʻole makemake e pili i kekahi. Aia kekahi mau moʻo o nā malihini "ʻino maoli" nāna e luku i kēlā me kēia lāhui a lākou e hālāwai ai. ʻAʻole makemake ka poʻe holomua ʻenehana i nā lāhui ʻē aʻe e lele i mua a lilo i mea hoʻoweliweli iā lākou.

He mea kūpono hoʻi e hoʻomanaʻo i ke ola ma ka lewa i nā pōʻino like ʻole, a mākou i ʻike ai mai ka mōʻaukala o ko mākou honua. Ke kamaʻilio nei mākou e pili ana i ka glaciation, nā hopena ʻino o kahi hōkū, ka pōʻino e nā meteors, asteroids a i ʻole comets, collisions me nā planeta ʻē aʻe a i ʻole radiation. ʻOiai inā ʻaʻole e hoʻomaʻemaʻe ʻia kēlā mau hanana i ka honua holoʻokoʻa, ʻo ia ka hopena o ka civilization.

He mea hiki no hoi i kekahi poe, o kakou kekahi o na civilization mua loa o ke ao holookoa - ina aole ka mua - a aole i hiki ia kakou ke ulu nui e hiki ai ke launa pu me na ano hoonaauao liilii i ala mai mahope. Inā pēlā, a laila, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻonā ʻia ka pilikia o ka ʻimi ʻana i nā mea naʻauao ma ke ākea. Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole hiki i ka moʻomeheu "'ōpiopio" hypothetical he mau makahiki ʻōpio wale nō ma mua o mākou i hiki ke hoʻopili iā ia ma kahi mamao.

ʻAʻole nui loa ka puka makani ma mua. ʻO ka ʻenehana a me ka ʻike o kahi moʻomeheu i hoʻokahi kaukani makahiki i hala aku nei he mea hiki ʻole ke hoʻomaopopo iā mākou e like me ke kanaka mai nā Crusades i kēia lā. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o nā moʻomeheu kiʻekiʻe e like me ko kākou honua me nā ʻanuʻu mai kahi ʻanuʻu alanui.

Speculative i kapaia Kardashevo pālākiōʻO kāna hana e hoʻokō i nā pae hypothetical o ka civilization e like me ka nui o ka ikehu a lākou e ʻai ai. Wahi a ia, ʻaʻole mākou he civilization i kēia manawa ʻano I, ʻo ia hoʻi, ka mea i ʻike i ka hiki ke hoʻohana i nā kumuwaiwai ikehu o kona honua ponoʻī. Civilization ʻano II hiki iā ia ke hoʻohana i ka ikehu a pau e hoʻopuni ana i kahi hōkū, no ka laʻana, me ka hoʻohana ʻana i kahi hale i kapa ʻia ʻo "Dyson sphere." Civilization ʻano III Ma muli o kēia mau manaʻo, hopu ia i ka ikehu a pau o ka galaxy. E hoʻomanaʻo naʻe, ua hana ʻia kēia manaʻo ma ke ʻano he ʻāpana o ka moʻomeheu Tier I i hoʻopau ʻole ʻia, a hiki i kēia manawa ua manaʻo hewa ʻia ʻo ia he ʻano civili e ʻimi nei i kahi holomua Type II e kūkulu i kahi pōʻai Dyson a puni kona hōkū (anomaly starlight). KIK 8462852).

Inā loaʻa kahi civilization o ke ʻano II, a ʻoi aku hoʻi i ka III, e ʻike maoli mākou iā ia a hui pū me mākou - manaʻo kekahi o mākou, no ka mea ʻaʻole mākou e ʻike a ʻike ʻole paha me nā malihini holomua. ʻaʻole lākou e ola . ʻO kekahi kula o ka wehewehe ʻana no ka Fermi Paradox, akā naʻe, ʻōlelo ʻo nā civilizations ma kēia mau pae ʻaʻole i ʻike ʻia a ʻike ʻole ʻia e mākou - ʻaʻole e haʻi iā lākou, e like me ke kuhiakau zoo space, ʻaʻole lākou e hoʻolohe i nā mea i hoʻomohala ʻia.

Ma hope o nā hoʻokolohua a ma mua paha?

Ma waho aʻe o nā kūkākūkā e pili ana i nā moʻomeheu i hoʻomohala nui ʻia, wehewehe ʻia ka Fermi paradox i kekahi manawa e nā manaʻo nā kānana evolutionary i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka civilization. Wahi a lākou, aia kahi pae i ke kaʻina o ka evolution me he mea hiki ʻole a hiki ʻole paha ke ola. Ua kapa ʻia Ka Kanana Nui, ʻo ia ka holomua nui loa i ka mōʻaukala o ke ola ma ka honua.

E pili ana i ko mākou ʻike kanaka, ʻaʻole maopopo iā mākou inā aia mākou ma hope, ma mua a ma waena paha o ka kānana nui. Inā hiki iā mākou ke lanakila i kēia kānana, ua lilo paha ia i mea pale ʻole i ka hapa nui o nā ʻano ola ma kahi ākea, a ʻokoʻa mākou. Hiki ke kānana mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana, no ka laʻana, i ka wā o ka hoʻololi ʻana o kahi cell prokaryotic i kahi cell eukaryotic paʻakikī. Inā pēlā, he mea maʻamau paha ke ola ma ka lewa, akā ma ke ʻano o nā cell me ka nuclei ʻole. Malia paha ʻo mākou ka mea mua e hele i loko o ka kānana Nui? Hoʻihoʻi mai kēia iā mākou i ka pilikia i ʻōlelo ʻia, ʻo ia ka paʻakikī o ke kamaʻilio ʻana ma kahi mamao.

Aia nō hoʻi ka hiki ʻana o ka holomua o ka hoʻomohala ʻana ma mua o mākou. ʻAʻole hiki ke kamaʻilio e pili ana i ka holomua i kēlā manawa.

ʻO kēia nā manaʻo noʻonoʻo nui loa. Hāʻawi kekahi poʻe ʻepekema i nā wehewehe maʻamau no ka nele o nā hōʻailona malihini. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Alan Stern, ka mea ʻepekema nui ma New Horizons, he hopena maʻalahi paha ka paradox. mānoanoa o ka haue hoʻopuni ana i nā moana ma nā kino lani ʻē aʻe. Hoʻopuka ka mea noiʻi i kēia manaʻo ma muli o nā mea i ʻike hou ʻia i ka ʻōnaehana solar: aia nā moana wai wai ma lalo o nā ʻōpala o nā mahina he nui. I kekahi mau hihia (Europe, Enceladus), pili ka wai me ka lepo pōhaku a hoʻopaʻa ʻia ka hana hydrothermal ma laila. Pono kēia e kōkua i ka puka ʻana o ke ola.

Hiki i ka ʻōpala hau mānoanoa ke pale i ke ola mai nā ʻano ʻino ma waho. Ke kamaʻilio nei mākou ma ʻaneʻi, ma waena o nā mea ʻē aʻe, me nā lapalapa stellar ikaika, nā hopena asteroid a i ʻole radiation kokoke i kahi pilikua kinoea. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, hōʻike paha ia i kahi pale i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i paʻakikī ke lanakila ʻoiai no ke ola naʻauao hypothetical. ʻAʻole ʻike paha ia mau ʻano ʻano wai i kahi ākea ma mua o ka ʻili hau mānoanoa. He mea paʻakikī paha ka moeʻuhane e hele ma waho o kona mau palena a me ke kaiapuni wai - e ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī ma mua o mākou, nona ka lewa waho, ʻokoʻa ka lewa o ka honua, ʻaʻole ia he wahi aloha.

Ke ʻimi nei mākou i ke ola a i ʻole kahi kūpono e noho ai?

I kekahi hihia, pono mākou e noʻonoʻo i ka mea a mākou e ʻimi nei: ke ola a i ʻole kahi kūpono no ke ola e like me mākou. Ke manaʻo nei ʻaʻole mākou makemake e hakakā i nā kaua ākea me kekahi, ʻelua mau mea like ʻole kēia. Hiki ke lilo nā hokele i hiki ke ola akā ʻaʻole nā ​​lāhui holomua. A ke ʻimi nei mākou i nā wahi hoʻohiki hou aʻe. Hiki iā mākou ke hoʻohana i nā mea hana nānā e hoʻoholo ai inā ke kaʻapuni nei ka honua i ka mea i kapa ʻia he orbit. wahi ola a puni ka hokuinā paha he pōhaku a ma kahi mahana kūpono no ka wai wai. E ʻike koke mākou inā he wai maoli ma laila a hoʻoholo i ke ʻano o ka lewa.

ʻO ka ʻāpana o ke ola a puni nā hōkū ma muli o ko lākou nui a me nā laʻana o nā exoplanets e like me ka Honua (horizontal coordinate - mamao mai ka hōkū (JA); vertical coordinate - ka nui o ka hōkū (pili i ka Lā)).

I ka makahiki i hala, me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka mea kani HARPS a ESO a me kekahi mau telescopes a puni ka honua, ua ʻike nā kānaka ʻepekema i ka exoplanet LHS 1140b ma ke ʻano he moho kaulana loa no ke ola. Kaapuni ia i ka hoku dwarf ula LHS 1140, kanaha makahiki malamalama mai ka Honua aku. Manaʻo ka poʻe Astronomers he ʻelima piliona makahiki ka lōʻihi o ka honua. Ua hoʻoholo lākou he anawaena o ka aneane 18 1,4. km - he 1140 manawa ka nui ma mua o ka Honua. Ua hoʻoholo ʻia nā haʻawina o ka nuipa a me ka mānoanoa o LHS b he pōhaku ia me ke kumu hao nui. Kamaʻāina ke kani?

Ma mua iki aku, ua kaulana kekahi ʻōnaehana o nā hōkū honua ʻehiku a puni kahi hōkū. TRAPPIST-1. Hoʻonohonoho ʻia lākou e nā leka "b" a i "h" ma ke ʻano o ka mamao mai ka hōkū hoʻokipa. ʻO nā loiloi i alakaʻi ʻia e nā ʻepekema a paʻi ʻia ma ka pukana Ianuali o Nature Astronomy e hōʻike ana, ma muli o ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa o ka ʻilikai, ka wela haʻahaʻa o ke kai a me ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa e alakaʻi ʻole ai i kahi hopena ʻōmaʻomaʻo, ʻo nā moho maikaʻi loa no nā hokele noho ʻia he "d" mea. a me "e". Hiki i ka mua ke uhi i ka moana wai holoʻokoʻa.

Nā Honua o ka ʻōnaehana TRAPPIST-1

No laila, ʻo ka loaʻa ʻana o nā kūlana kūpono i ke ola me he mea lā hiki ke loaʻa iā mākou. He moʻolelo ʻokoʻa loa ka ʻike mamao o ke ola ponoʻī, he mea maʻalahi a ʻaʻole e hoʻokuʻu i nā nalu electromagnetic. Eia naʻe, ua manaʻo nā kānaka ʻepekema mai Washington State University i kahi ala hou e hoʻokō ai i ka ʻimi lōʻihi i manaʻo ʻia no nā mea nui. oxygen i ka lewa o ka honua. He maikaʻi ka manaʻo o ka oxygen no ka mea paʻakikī ke hana i ka nui o ka oxygen me ke ola ʻole, akā ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia inā hoʻopuka nā mea ola a pau i ka oxygen.

"He paʻakikī ka biochemistry o ka hana ʻana o ka oxygen a hiki ke loaʻa ʻole," wehewehe ʻo Joshua Chrissansen-Totton o ke Kulanui o Wakinekona ma ka puke pai Science Advances. Ma ka nānā ʻana i ka mōʻaukala o ke ola ma ka Honua, ua hiki ke ʻike i ka hui ʻana o nā kinoea, kahi e hōʻike ai i ke ola o ke ola a me ka oxygen. E kamaʻilio ana ka hui ʻana o ka methane a me ka carbon dioxide, me ka ʻole kalapona monoxide. No ke aha me ka mea hope ʻole? ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo nā ʻātoma kalapona i loko o nā molekala ʻelua e hōʻike ana i nā mokuʻāina hoʻokahe like ʻole. He mea paʻakikī loa ka hoʻokō ʻana i nā pae kūpono o ka hoʻomake ʻana e nā kaʻina non-biological me ka ʻole o ka hana pū ʻana o ka carbon monoxide. Inā, no ka laʻana, ke kumu o ka methane a me CO₂ Aia nā lua pele i ka lewa, e hele pū ʻia lākou me ka carbon monoxide. Eia kekahi, hikiwawe a maʻalahi kēia kinoea e nā microorganisms. No ka mea aia i loko o ka lewa, pono e kāpae ʻia ke ola o ke ola.

Hoʻolālā ʻo NASA e hoʻomaka i 2019 ʻO James Webb Space Telescopee hiki ai ke aʻo pololei i nā lewa o kēia mau hokele no ka loaʻa ʻana o nā kinoea kaumaha e like me carbon dioxide, methane, wai a me ka oxygen.

Ua ʻike ʻia ka exoplanet mua i ka makahiki 90. Mai ia manawa, ua hōʻoia mua mākou ma kahi o 4. exoplanets ma kahi o 2800 ʻōnaehana, me kahi iwakālua paha i ʻike ʻia he hiki ke noho. Ma ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mea hana ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi no ka nānā ʻana i kēia mau honua, e hiki iā mākou ke hana i nā kuhi ʻike hou aʻe e pili ana i nā kūlana ma laila. A ʻo ka mea e hiki mai ana ke ʻike ʻia.