ʻO kā mākou hoʻokūpaʻa liʻiliʻi
Piʻi mau ka lā i ka hikina, hoʻololi mau nā kau, he 365 a 366 mau lā o ka makahiki, he anuanu ka hoʻoilo, mehana ke kauwela… ʻOluʻolu. Akā, e nanea kākou i kēia luuluu! ʻO ka mua, ʻaʻole ia e mau loa. ʻO ka lua, ʻo kā mākou stabilization liʻiliʻi he hihia kūikawā a pōkole wale nō i ka ʻōnaehana solar chaotic holoʻokoʻa.
ʻO ka neʻe ʻana o nā hōkūhele, nā mahina a me nā mea ʻē aʻe a pau i loko o ka ʻōnaehana solar me he mea lā ua pololei a hiki ke wānana. Akā inā pēlā, pehea ʻoe e wehewehe ai i nā lua pele a mākou e ʻike nei ma ka mahina a me nā kino lani he nui i loko o kā mākou ʻōnaehana? Nui nō hoʻi lākou ma ka Honua, akā, no ka loaʻa ʻana o ka lewa, a me ka hili ʻana, nā mea kanu a me ka wai, ʻaʻole mākou i ʻike maopopo i ka ululāʻau honua e like me nā wahi ʻē aʻe.
Inā loaʻa i ka ʻōnaehana solar nā mea kikoʻī kūpono e hana wale ana ma nā loina Newtonian, a laila, me ka ʻike pono i nā kūlana a me ka wikiwiki o ka Lā a me nā hōkū āpau, hiki iā mākou ke hoʻoholo i ko lākou wahi i kēlā me kēia manawa i ka wā e hiki mai ana. ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ʻokoʻa ka ʻoiaʻiʻo mai ka neat dynamics o Newton.
lele lele
Ua hoʻomaka pololei ka holomua nui o ka ʻepekema kūlohelohe me nā hoʻāʻo e wehewehe i nā kino cosmic. ʻO nā mea i ʻike nui ʻia e wehewehe ana i nā kānāwai o ka neʻe ʻana o ka honua i hana ʻia e nā "mākua kumu" o ka astronomy hou, ka makemakika a me ka physics - Copernicus, Galilaia, Kepler i ʻO Newton. Eia nō naʻe, ʻoiai ua ʻike maopopo ʻia ka mechanics o nā kino lani ʻelua e launa pū ana ma lalo o ka mana o ka ʻumekaumaha, ʻo ka hoʻohui ʻana o kahi mea kolu (ʻo ka pilikia i kapa ʻia ʻekolu kino kino) hoʻopili i ka pilikia a hiki i kahi hiki ʻole iā mākou ke hoʻoponopono iā ia me ka analytically.
Hiki iā mākou ke wānana i ka neʻe ʻana o ka Honua, e ʻōlelo, he piliona makahiki ma mua? A i ʻole, ma nā ʻōlelo ʻē aʻe: paʻa ka ʻōnaehana solar? Ua ho'āʻo nā kānaka ʻepekema e pane i kēia nīnau no nā hanauna. ʻO nā hopena mua i loaʻa iā lākou Petero Simona mai Laplace i Joseph Louis Lagrange, ʻaʻohe kānalua i manaʻo i kahi pane maikaʻi.
I ka hopena o ke kenekulia XNUMX, ʻo ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka pilikia o ka paʻa o ka ʻōnaehana solar kekahi o nā pilikia ʻepekema nui loa. alii o Suedena ʻO Oscar II, ua hoʻokumu ʻo ia i kahi makana kūikawā no ka mea nāna e hoʻoponopono i kēia pilikia. Ua loaʻa iā ia i ka makahiki 1887 e ka mea makemakika Farani Henri Poincaré. Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia kāna mau hōʻike ʻaʻole hiki i nā ala perturbation ke alakaʻi i ka hoʻonā pololei.
Ua hoʻokumu ʻo ia i ke kumu o ka manaʻo makemakika o ka neʻe kūpaʻa. Alexander M. LapunovʻO ka mea i noʻonoʻo i ka wikiwiki o ka mamao ma waena o ʻelua alahele kokoke i kahi ʻōnaehana chaotic e piʻi me ka manawa. I ka hapa lua o ke kenekulia iwakālua. Edward Lorenz, he meteorologist ma Massachusetts Institute of Technology, i kūkulu i kahi hoʻohālike maʻalahi o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka wā e hilinaʻi wale ana i nā kumu he ʻumikumamālua, ʻaʻole pili pono i ka neʻe ʻana o nā kino i ka ʻōnaehana solar. Ma kāna pepa 1963, ua hōʻike ʻo Edward Lorenz i kahi hoʻololi liʻiliʻi o ka ʻikepili hoʻokomo i kumu ʻokoʻa loa o ka ʻōnaehana. ʻO kēia waiwai, i kapa ʻia ma hope he "butterfly effect", ua lilo ia i mea maʻamau o ka hapa nui o nā ʻōnaehana dynamic i hoʻohana ʻia e hoʻohālike i nā ʻano ʻano like ʻole i ka physics, chemistry a i ʻole biology.
ʻO ke kumu o ka haunaele i loko o nā ʻōnaehana dynamical nā pūʻali o ke kauoha like e hana ana i nā kino holomua. ʻO ka nui o nā kino i loko o ka ʻōnaehana, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka haunaele. I ka Pūnaehana Solar, ma muli o ka disproportion nui i ka nui o nā ʻāpana āpau i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka Lā, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka pilina o kēia mau ʻāpana me ka hōkū, no laila ʻaʻole nui ka degere o ka haunaele i hōʻike ʻia ma Lyapunov exponents. Akā, e like me ka helu ʻana a Lorentz, ʻaʻole pono mākou e kāhāhā i ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ke ʻano chaotic o ka ʻōnaehana solar. He mea kāhāhā inā maʻamau ka ʻōnaehana me ka nui o nā degere kūʻokoʻa.
He ʻumi makahiki aku nei ʻO Jacques Lascar mai ka Paris Observatory, ua hana ʻo ia ma luna o hoʻokahi tausani kamepiula simulation o ka neʻe honua. I kēlā me kēia o lākou, ʻokoʻa ʻole nā kūlana mua. Hōʻike ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana ʻaʻohe mea koʻikoʻi e hiki mai iā mākou i nā makahiki he 40 miliona e hiki mai ana, akā ma hope o 1-2% o nā hihia. hoʻopau piha i ka ʻōnaehana solar. Loaʻa iā mākou kēia mau makahiki 40 miliona wale nō ma ke ʻano ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia kekahi malihini i manaʻo ʻole ʻia, kumu a i ʻole mea hou i mālama ʻole ʻia i kēia manawa.
Hōʻike nā helu, no ka laʻana, i loko o 5 biliona makahiki e loli ka orbit o Mercury (ka honua mua mai ka Lā), ma muli o ka mana o Jupiter. Hiki i kēia ke alakaʻi i Kūʻē ka honua me Mars a i ʻole Mercury pololei. Ke hoʻokomo mākou i kekahi o nā waihona, aia kēlā me kēia me 1,3 biliona makahiki. Hiki ke hāʻule ka Mercury i ka Lā. I kekahi simulation, ua huli ia ma hope o 820 miliona makahiki E kipaku ʻia ʻo Mars mai ka ʻōnaehana, a ma hope o 40 miliona makahiki e hiki mai i ka hui 'ana o Mercury a me Venus.
A study of the dynamics of our System by Lascar and his team guessed the Lapunov time (ie, ka manawa e hiki ai ke wānana pololei i ke kaʻina hana i hāʻawi ʻia) no ka Pūnaehana holoʻokoʻa ma 5 miliona makahiki.
ʻIke ʻia ʻo kahi hewa o 1 km wale nō i ka hoʻoholo ʻana i ke kūlana mua o ka honua hiki ke hoʻonui i 1 ʻāpana astronomical i 95 miliona mau makahiki. ʻOiai inā ʻike mākou i ka ʻikepili mua o ka Pūnaehana me kahi kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe, akā paʻa ka pololei, ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke wānana i kāna ʻano no kekahi manawa. No ka hōʻike ʻana i ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka Pūnaehana, he chaotic, pono mākou e ʻike i ka ʻikepili kumu me ka pololei ʻole, ʻaʻole hiki.
Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole maopopo iā mākou. huina ikehu o ka solar system. Akā me ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i nā hopena āpau, me nā ana relativistic a ʻoi aku ka pololei, ʻaʻole mākou e hoʻololi i ke ʻano chaotic o ka ʻōnaehana solar a ʻaʻole hiki ke wānana i kāna ʻano a me kona kūlana i kēlā me kēia manawa.
Hiki i kekahi mea
No laila, huikau wale ka ʻōnaehana solar, ʻo ia wale nō. ʻO ke ʻano o kēia ʻōlelo ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke wānana i ke alahele o ka Honua ma mua o 100 miliona mau makahiki. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ʻaʻole kānalua ka ʻōnaehana solar ma ke ʻano he hale i kēia manawa, no ka mea, ʻo nā liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi o nā ʻāpana e hōʻike ana i nā ala o nā hōkū e alakaʻi i nā orbit ʻokoʻa, akā me nā waiwai pili. No laila, ʻaʻole paha e hāʻule i loko o nā piliona makahiki e hiki mai ana.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, aia paha i ʻōlelo ʻia i nā mea hou i mālama ʻole ʻia i nā helu ma luna. No ka laʻana, lawe ka ʻōnaehana i 250 miliona mau makahiki e hoʻopau i kahi orbit a puni ke kikowaena o ka galaxy Milky Way. He hopena kēia neʻe. Ke hoʻololi nei ke kaiapuni ākea e hoʻopau i ke kaulike maʻalahi ma waena o ka Lā a me nā mea ʻē aʻe. ʻO kēia, ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole hiki ke wānana, akā hiki i kēlā ʻano imbalance ke alakaʻi i ka piʻi ʻana o ka hopena. hana kometa. Lele pinepine kēia mau mea i ka lā ma mua o ka maʻamau. Hoʻonui kēia i ka pilikia o ko lākou hui ʻana me ka Honua.
Star ma hope o 4 miliona makahiki ʻO Gliese 710 he 1,1 mau makahiki māmā mai ka Lā, hiki ke hoʻopilikia i nā ʻōpuni o nā mea i loko Aort Cloud a me ka piʻi ʻana o ka hui ʻana o kahi comet me kekahi o nā hōkūhele o loko o ka ʻōnaehana solar.
Ke hilinaʻi nei ka poʻe ʻepekema i ka ʻikepili mōʻaukala a, e kiʻi ana i nā hopena helu helu mai iā lākou, wānana i kēlā, i ka hapalua miliona mau makahiki ʻo ka meteor e pā ana i ka honua ʻO 1 km ka anawaena, e hana ana i kahi pōʻino honua. I ka huli ʻana, i ka manaʻo o 100 miliona mau makahiki, manaʻo ʻia e hāʻule ka meteorite i ka nui e like me ka mea i hoʻopau ʻia ai ka Cretaceous 65 miliona mau makahiki i hala.
A hiki i 500-600 miliona mau makahiki, pono ʻoe e kali i ka lōʻihi e like me ka hiki (hou, e pili ana i ka ʻikepili i loaʻa a me nā helu helu) uila uila ole supernova hyperenergy pahū. Ma kēlā mamao, hiki i nā kukuna ke hoʻopilikia i ka papa ozone o ka Honua a hoʻoulu i ka luku nui e like me ka Ordovician extinction - inā pololei ka kuhiakau e pili ana i kēia. Eia nō naʻe, pono e kuhikuhi pololei ʻia ka radiation emitted i ka Honua i mea e hiki ai ke hana i kekahi pōʻino ma aneʻi.
No laila, e hauʻoli kākou i ka hana hou ʻana a me ka hoʻokūpaʻa liʻiliʻi o ka honua a mākou e ʻike nei a e noho nei mākou. ʻO ka makemakika, ka ʻikepili a me ka hiki ke hoʻomau iā ia i ka wā lōʻihi. ʻO ka mea pōmaikaʻi, ua mamao loa kēia huakaʻi lōʻihi ma mua o ko mākou hiki.
