Nā wānana lōʻihi o ka mākeke mokulele

He kikowaena hoʻāʻo a me ka hōʻiliʻili Airbus ma Toulouse-Blagnac Airport ma Farani. Nā Kiʻi Airbus

Ua hoʻopuka nā mea hana mokulele mokulele i nā paʻi hope o nā wānana lōʻihi no ka mākeke huakaʻi ea. E like me kā lākou mau manaʻo, i loko o nā makahiki he ʻelua e hiki mai ana, 2018-2037, e hoʻonui ʻia ka halihali ma 2,5 mau manawa, a e kūʻai aku nā mokulele: e like me Boeing - 42,7 tausani mokulele ($ 6,35 trillion), a e like me Airbus - 37,4 tausani. , Hoʻopili ka mea hana ʻEulopa i nā kaʻa me ka nui o nā noho he 100, a ʻo ka ʻAmelika me nā mokulele liʻiliʻi. Manaʻo ʻo Embraer i ka pono o nā mokulele kūloko me ka hiki ke hiki i nā noho 150 ma 10,5 tausani. 'āpana, a me ka MFR o turboprops e 3,02 tausani........................................................ a hiki i ka 24,4 tausani mau ʻāpana, a ʻo ka nui o ka mākeke kaʻa mokulele he 48,5 trillion kālā.

I ka waenakonu o ka makahiki, ua hoʻopuka nā mea hana o nā mokulele kamaʻilio i nā hoʻokuʻu maʻamau o nā wānana lōʻihi no ka mākeke kaʻa kaʻa. Ua kapa ʻia ke aʻo ʻana ʻo Boeing i kēia manawa Market Outlook - CMO (Current Market Outlook) a me Airbus Global Market Forecast - GMF (World Market Forecast). Ma kāna loiloi, hana kekahi mea hana ʻEulopa i nā mokulele me ka nui o nā noho he 100, aʻo ka mea hana ʻAmelika e pili ana i nā mokulele kūloko me 90 mau noho. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ʻo nā wanana i hoʻomākaukau ʻia e Bombardier, Embraer a me ATR e nānā i nā mokulele āpana, ʻo ia ke kumu o kā lākou hoihoi hana.

Ma nā wānana ʻokoʻa, manaʻo nā mea loiloi mākeke: ka nui o ka lawe ʻana i ka ea a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā ʻauwaʻa e nā wahi o ka honua a me nā kūlana kālā no ka hana ʻana o ka mākeke mokulele i nā makahiki he iwakālua e hiki mai ana 2018-2037. ʻO ka hoʻomākaukau ʻana i nā hoʻolaha wānana hope loa i hoʻomaka ʻia e ka loiloi hohonu o ke kaʻa ma nā ala ʻoi loa a me nā hoʻololi nui i hana ʻia i nā ʻauwaʻa, i lawelawe ʻia e nā mea lawe nui loa, a me nā kumukūʻai hana o nā ʻāpana ala. makeke huakaʻi ea. Hoʻohana ʻia nā wānana ʻaʻole wale e ka hoʻokele mokulele a me nā mea hana mokulele kamaʻilio, akā e nā mea panakō, nā mea loiloi mākeke mokulele a me nā ʻoihana aupuni pili.

wānana ka lewa

ʻO nā mea noiʻi mākeke mokulele, nāna i hoʻomākaukau i ka hoʻokuʻu hou ʻana o nā wanana lōʻihi, ua hoʻomaka mai ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai makahiki o ka honua GDP (gross domestic product) he 2,8%. Nā ʻāina ma ka ʻāina: Asia-Pacific - 3,9%, Middle East - 3,5%, ʻApelika - 3,3% a me ʻAmelika Hema - 3,0% e hoʻopaʻa i ka dynamics ulu makahiki kiʻekiʻe loa o kā lākou ʻoihana, a ma lalo o ka awelika honua: ʻEulopa - 1,7, 2 %, ʻAmelika ʻĀkau - 2% a me Rūsia a me Central Asia - 4,7%. ʻO ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka hoʻokele waiwai e hāʻawi i ka awelika o ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kaʻa kaʻa ma ka pae o XNUMX%. ʻO ka ulu ʻana o ka halihali, ʻoi aku ma mua o ka hoʻokele waiwai, ʻo ia ka hopena o ka: liberalization mākeke a me ka holomua holomua o ka ʻoihana kamaʻilio, nā kumukūʻai tiketi haʻahaʻa, a me ka hopena maikaʻi o ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ke kālepa honua a me ka mākaʻikaʻi honua. No ka manawa mua i loko o nā makahiki he nui, ke ʻike nei mākou i ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai ma nā wahi āpau o ka honua e hana hou i nā mea hoʻoikaika no ka huakaʻi ea honua. "ʻIke mākou i nā ʻano ulu ikaika ʻaʻole wale i nā mākeke e kū mai ana ma Kina a me India, akā i nā mākeke makua hoʻi ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika ʻAmelika," wahi a Boeing Vice President of Marketing Randy Tinseth i kahi ʻōlelo i ka wānana.

ʻO ka mea hoʻokele nui no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka huakaʻi ea, ʻo ia ka ulu ʻana o ka heluna kanaka a me ka hoʻonui mālie ʻana o ka papa waena (ʻo ia hoʻi, loaʻa nā kānaka ma waena o $ 10 a me $ 100 i ka lā, ua hoʻoponopono ʻia kēia mau huina no ka mana kūʻai o nā kālā pākahi). Ua helu ka poʻe loiloi Airbus i loko o ʻelua mau makahiki e hoʻonui ʻia ka heluna o ka honua e 16% (mai 7,75 a 9,01 biliona), a ʻo ka papa waena e like me 69% (mai 2,98 a 5,05 biliona). ʻO ka piʻi nui loa, ʻelua mau piʻi o ka heluna kanaka o ka papa waena e hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma Asia (mai 1,41 a 2,81 biliona kānaka), a ʻo ka dynamics nui loa ma ʻApelika (mai 220 a 530 miliona). Ma nā mākeke nui o ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika ʻAmelika, ʻaʻole e loli nui ka nui o ka papa waena a e noho mau ma ka pae o 450-480 miliona (Europe) a me 260 miliona (ʻAmelika ʻĀkau), kēlā me kēia. Pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia ʻo ka papa waena i kēia manawa he 38% o ka heluna kanaka o ka honua, a i loko o iwakālua mau makahiki e hoʻonui ʻia kāna mahele i 56%. ʻO ka mea hoʻoikaika ma hope o ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka huakaʻi ea, ʻo ia ka holomua ʻana o ke kūlanakauhale a me ka ulu waiwai o nā mākeke e kū mai ana me ka mana nui (me: India, Kina, ʻAmelika Hema, Central Europe a me Russia). Me ka huina o ka heluna kanaka he 6,7 biliona kanaka ma keia mau wahi, e ulu ana ka huakai ea ma ka huina o 5,7% o ka makahiki, a o ka nui o na kanaka e makemake ana e hele ma ka lewa, e papakolu. I kēia mau makahiki e hiki mai ana, e lilo ana ka mākeke mokulele kūloko o Kina i mea nui loa ma ka honua. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, i nā mākeke i kūkulu ʻia (me ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, ʻEulopa Komohana, Iapana, Singapore, South Korea a me Australia) me ka heluna kanaka ʻoi aku ma mua o hoʻokahi piliona kānaka, e ulu ka huakaʻi ma kahi o 3,1%. ʻO ke koi no ka lawe ʻana i ka ea e alakaʻi i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mokulele, me nā hub hoʻoili e kū kokoke ana i nā wahi metropolitan (ʻoi aku lākou ma mua o 10 mau kaʻa i kēlā me kēia lā ma nā ala lōʻihi). Ma 2037, ʻelua hapakolu o ka heluna kanaka o ka honua e noho i nā kūlanakauhale, a e piʻi ka nui o nā megacities mai ka 64 a hiki i 210 (ma 2027) a me 328 (ma 2037).

ʻO nā ʻāina hoʻomohala ikaika e: ʻAmelika Hema, ka ʻāina ʻo Asia-Pacific a me ka Middle East, e ulu ana ma ka awelika makahiki o 5-5,5%, a me ʻApelika - 6%. Ma nā mākeke nui ʻelua o ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika ʻAmelika, e piʻi ka ulu ma 3,1% a me 3,8%, kēlā me kēia. No ka mea e ulu mālie ana kēia mau mākeke ma mua o ka awelika o ke ao holoʻokoʻa (4,7%), e emi mālie ana kā lākou mahele i nā kaʻa holo honua. I ka makahiki 1990, he 72% ka mahele hui o ka mākeke ʻAmelika a me ʻEulopa, i ka makahiki 2010 - 55%, he ʻumikumamālima makahiki i hala aku nei - 49%, i loko o iwakālua mau makahiki e hoʻemi ʻia kēia mahele i 37%. Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole kēia ka hopena o ka saturation kiʻekiʻe wale nō stagnation.

ʻO ka dynamics makahiki o ka lawe ʻana i ka ea ma kahi liʻiliʻi pakeneka e alakaʻi i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo i loko o 20 mau makahiki e ulu ka nui o nā poʻe holo mai ka 4,1 a 10 biliona i kēia manawa, a me ka lawe ʻana i ka huahana mai 7,6 trillion pkm (pass.-km) a i kahi 19 trillion pkm. . Manaʻo ʻo Boeing i ka makahiki 2037 ʻo nā wahi me ka nui o nā kaʻa e lilo i mau ala i loko o Kina (2,4 trillion pkm), ʻAmelika ʻĀkau (2,0 trillion pkm), ʻEulopa a me Asia Hikina Hema, a me nā pilina mai ʻEulopa a i ʻAmelika ʻĀkau (0,9 trillion pkm) . ) a me ka Hikina Waena. ʻO ka māhele mākeke o ʻAsia i ka honua i kēia manawa he 33%, a i loko o ʻelua mau makahiki e hōʻea i 40%. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, e hāʻule ka mākeke ʻEulopa mai ka 25% i kēia manawa a 21%, a me ka mākeke ʻAmelika ʻAmelika mai 21% a 16%. E noho mau ka mākeke o ʻAmelika Hema me ka hapa o 5%, Russia a me Central Asia - 4% a me ʻApelika - 3%.